Impact of Roubini’s Perfect Storm Predictions on India

Indian economy is not doing well. It grew at just 5.5 percent in the June quarter. The slow growth continues from last quarter, and the rapid economic growth of the last decade can no longer be taken for granted. The political paralysis, frequent corruption and scam charges, and inability to pursue  reforms has all led to this sorry state of affairs. This week with much fanfare reform guidelines for foreign direct investment in retail and aviation were released. Let us see whether they make a difference in the long run.

The area of concern is that economist Nouriel Roubini dubbed ‘Dr Doom” for predicting 2008 financial crises, recently predicted a global perfect storm in 2013. He highlighted five factors that will derail the global economy.

If India’s internal problems continue and Roubini’s predictions become real, the dream of India becoming a super power by 2020, may just remain wishful thinking.  As there are divergent views on India’s growth story, let us take a look on the impact of these factors on Indian economy and growth.

1) Worsening debt crises in Europe

The European crises is more than a spanner in the wheels, it has the capacity to bring the global economy to its knees. With Greece, Ireland and Spain in doldrums and economist predicting a breakdown of Eurozone in near future, things couldn’t be worse. London and other euro cities are home to the biggest financial institutions and extensively interconnected with the rest of the world. The combined economies of Eurozone is the second largest in the world, hence anything going wrong here will impact the rest of the world.

A recently released FICCI report states that – “Indian companies doing business or which have invested in Europe have been adversely impacted. About 75% respondents said they have reported decline in their business prospects and also a loss of over 20% in business generation from the European region.” If a full-blown breakdown occurs, then Indian economy will definitely suffer. Though, a lot has been said about European institutions working together to bring financial stability and governments having the political will to take corrective measures, it seems doubtful. Good economies, Germany for one, may back out as its citizens may not wish to carry the burden of other countries.  Hence, Indian companies are spreading their business in Africa and Middle-East to counter the downturn of Europe.

2) Tax increases and spending cuts in US that may push the country in recession

Barack Obama inherited an economy in crises. Though the financial crises is over, the economy will take a few years to recover. Last six months economic indicators show progress . The annualized growth rate is ranging between 1-2% in 2012, a major improvement from -7% in 2009. The unemployment rate is around 8%, and property prices have risen in the last six months after 5 years.

As neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney has a magic wand, the possibility of US going in recession is high, specially as it is highly linked and dependent on Europe. For India, a US recession is firstly bad news for the outsourcing industry. Obama and Romney, both in their election campaigns have targeted Indian outsourcing business as the source of all problems prevailing in US job market.

Though Indian software industry exports were US $ 101 billion in revenues in the year ended March 2012, NASSCOM has stated difficulty in predicting Indian software exports for more than two quarters in uncertain conditions. India exported  merchandise goods to US for $57.8 billion in 2011 and is growing. Since majority contributions are of textiles, stones etc., the impact of recession  isn’t significant.

In respect to FDI’s, receives investments through Mauritius, Singapore etc and “According to the latest data released by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), India received foreign direct investment (FDI) worth US$ 1.33 billion in May 2012 while cumulative inflows for April-May 2012-13 stood at US$ 3.18 billion”. Hence, the impact of US recession on Indian FDI will not be significant.

India in all likelihood can survive a US recession without much impact on a stand alone basis. With Europe also spinning out of control, the scenario changes.

3) A hard landing for China’s economy

Chinese economy over the last two decades flourished with high investment in infrastructure projects and low manufacturing costs. It imported capital goods, though not consumer goods, and domestic consumption didn’t increase much. Now growth forecasts are in single digits, and focus has to shift internally due to the Eurozone crises and US recession.

As Satyajit Das mentioned in a recent blog post, the world is divided into two groups with respect to China – Sino-philia and Sino-phobia. Some pro-China model believers think China is set to become a super power. On the other hand Sino-phobic believe China is out to control the world. Hence, the perpetual predictions of China succeeding and failing. However, Das has pointed out rightly in the following words –

“Nothing illustrates this better than Chinese income levels. Despite its status as the world’s second largest economy, China ranks 98 out of 181 nations in the World Bank’s ranking of GDP per capita. Based on forecasts, wealth per capita in 2016 will be only equivalent to US$13,700 against $57,300 for the US and US$48,000 for Germany. This does not take into account the massive income inequalities in China, where a large portion of the population lives on less than US$1.25 a day.”

China and India suffer from the same problems of huge income disparity, over-population and poverty. The corruption in the government further distorts the situation. If Chinese economy slows down, the disparities will continue and China will have to focus internally. It does give an opportunity for India to takeover but it depends on India straightening out its internal act.

4) Further slowing down of emerging markets

The BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China and lately South Africa – in the last decade showed tremendous growth. They were the torch bearers of developing world. However, now it is envisaged that BRICS will be growing in single figures. With it competition from other emerging markets is heightening – Indonesia, Philippines  Vietnam etc. . On both sides India is in trouble.

Firstly, with the slower growth in emerging countries, India will lose its advantageous position. As business heads start looking at other countries for investment, the FDI will slow down. Moroever, the emerging markets provide a good cost arbitrage. For example, Philippines have taken over the call center market specially that of US, as the cultures are similar and it is cheaper than India.

As each emerging country comes up with its own unique selling proposition, the Indian industries will be impacted unless they position themselves differently. As in the BPO business, India is now attempting to position itself as knowledge managers.

Emerging markets will increase competition for India, hence gazing at the crystal ball is not going to help. India will have to tackle its poor reputation on governance, public finances, scams and democratic setup.

 5) A military confrontation with Iran.

Political pundits predict that Israel to maintain its supremacy in Middle East will bomb Iran soon. Another view is that Iran will misuse its nuclear power to foster radical Islamic activities. Iran is rapidly building stronger ties with Russia, China and Latin America. In this situation, the target is US and Europe. The crucial question is, what does a war or attack by Iran means to India.

Besides ancient cultural ties, presently Iran is the major supplier of oil to India.  India has invested in the Oil & Gas industry in Iran to ensure its export. India imports 80% of crude oil to meet its energy needs from around 30 countries. Iran caters to 11% of the total requirement.

Hence, from cultural, political and trade perspective, India is not in Iran’s first list of country targets. However, if war does break out,  India is located between Pakistan and China. China would support Iran. On the other hand, Pakistan will face the tough choice of supporting the Islamic group or US. India is far to near the epicenter of the problem to avoid the war, as it has tense relationships with both its neighbors – Pakistan and China. On the whole, India loses out if there is a war in the Middle East. Tensions in Middle East will spell trouble for Indian companies having high energy consumption as crude oil price may increase.

Closing thoughts

Risk managers need to re-evaluate country risk of India and the rest of the countries they are doing business with. Credit rating agencies are threatening to further downgrade India’s rating. With the political risks of various countries changing, some impact on import-export, supply chain, customer relationships and investor participation can be expected. Even in the recent risk reports respondents have rated geo-political risks among the highest. This is a good time to take a close look at the risk scorecard to assess changes in strategic, financial and operational risks. Strategies should be developed for the country risks identified during the country risk assessment.

References:

1. A Global Perfect Storm – By Nouriel Roubini 
2. Roubini sticks to 2013 ‘perfect storm’ prediction
3. 7 economic indicators that could decide the election – By Market Watch
4. Foreign Direct Investment
5. Indian companies facing losses in Europe: Ficci
6. BRIC Countries Hit A Wall – Forbes India

Political Risk Predictions for 2011

Just being in the second week of the New Year, I am  continuing with the last Sunday’s post on trends. This week I thought it might be a good idea to understand the world and country risks. Do the political pundits see a better world in 2011 or are they expecting something worse?

Below are three posts giving different viewpoints on political and economic risks. The first one is from Foreclosure Blues titled “The Year of Catch 22”. It is long post and gives a rather dismal view of US political and economic situation. The second post “The Global Economy in 2011: A Rocky Ride or Smoother Sailing Ahead?” is from Knowledge Wharton. It is an excellent post covering economic risks of all major countries and regions. I have put the India section in this post.  The third post “The G-20 is 2011’s Biggest Political Risk” authored by Ian Bremmer and David Gordon is from Harvard Business Review. It discusses that though the world is expecting G-20 forum to resolve global situation, not much good will come out of it.

Click on the headings to read the full posts. Though they are rather long, I would recommend a read to understand the world economic and political risks. It is excellent information to assess country risks and their impact on the organization.

1.    2011 – The Year Of Catch 22 (via Foreclosure Blues)

As I began to think about what might happen in 2011, the classic Joseph Heller novel Catch 22 kept entering my mind. Am I sane for thinking such a thing, or am I so insane that asking this question proves that I’m too rational to even think such a thing?  In the novel, the “Catch 22″ is that “anyone who wants to get out of combat duty isn’t really crazy”. Hence, pilots who request a fitness evaluation are sane, and therefore must fly in combat. At the same time, if an evaluation is not requested by the pilot, he will never receive one (i.e. they can never be found “insane”), meaning he must also fly in combat. Therefore, Catch-22 ensures that no pilot can ever be grounded for being insane – even if he were. The absurdity is captured in this passage:

There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one’s own safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind. Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn’t, but if he was sane, he had to fly them. If he flew them, he was crazy and didn’t have to; but if he didn’t want to, he was sane and had to. Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle. “That’s some catch, that Catch-22,” he observed. “It’s the best there is,” Doc Daneeka agreed. – Catch 22 – Joseph Heller

The United States and its leaders are stuck in their own Catch 22. They need the economy to improve in order to generate jobs, but the economy can only improve if people have jobs. They need the economy to recover in order to improve our deficit situation, but if the economy really recovers long term interest rates will increase, further depressing the housing market and increasing the interest expense burden for the US, therefore increasing the deficit. A recovering economy would result in more production and consumption, which would result in more oil consumption driving the price above $100 per barrel, therefore depressing the economy. Americans must save for their retirements as 10,000 Baby Boomers turn 65 every day, but if the savings rate goes back to 10%, the economy will collapse due to lack of consumption. Consumer expenditures account for 71% of GDP and need to revert back to 65% for the US to have a balanced sustainable economy, but a reduction in consumer spending will push the US back into recession, reducing tax revenues and increasing deficits. You can see why Catch 22 is the theme for 2011.

2.     The Global Economy in 2011: A Rocky Ride or Smoother Sailing Ahead? (via Knowledge@Wharton)

India: Muscling Ahead

In India, December 2010 saw corruption charges rise to a crescendo and a whole session of Parliament was lost as opposition parties, demanding deeper investigation into the scams, refused to let it function. None of the political parties wants a fresh election, so this government will continue. But its trajectory has obviously been affected. “The political climate is uppermost in the investor’s mind,” says Vallabh Bhansali, chairman of Enam Securities, a capital market services firm. “If there are policy logjams, they could create confusion.”

But the economy is expected to muscle ahead regardless. Estimates of GDP growth vary from 9.7% (the IMF prediction for 2011) to 7.7% (the Credit Suisse prediction for fiscal 2011-12). Credit Suisse is a rare pessimist; almost everybody else has upped their forecasts. The government projection is 8.75%, with a possible 0.35% addition. “India is on a mission to get its annual GDP growth to 10%,” according to Bundeep Singh Rangar, chairman of IndusView, an advisor to MNCs seeking opportunities in India. “A good monsoon [season] and a strong global recovery could make 2011 the year that India achieves that goal.”

The Bombay Stock Exchange sensitive index (Sensex) should keep pace with GDP. “By the end of 2011, the Sensex is likely to be between 24,000 and 25,000,” says Rajinder Sabherwal, who manages a macro fund called Magister Ludi Global. The New York-based Sabherwal, however, doesn’t think India will be a top performer in the markets. “India is a defensive holding for us. It sells at a premium. To some extent [that is] justified, but [it] is vulnerable to inflation and rising oil prices. In emerging markets, we prefer Turkey, Russia, Thailand, Korea and Poland.” Sunil Bhandare, advisor (economic and government policy) at the Tata Strategic Management Group, sees a 12% to 16% growth in the Sensex over current levels (around 20,000 at the end of December).

One big worry is inflation. Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at credit rating agency Crisil, says inflation will be the biggest challenge in 2011. His other concern is the impact of rising capital inflows on the rupee. Naresh Takkar, managing director and CEO of credit rating agency ICRA, also lists inflation as a top concern, especially in commodity prices. He sees improving international economic sentiment as a “double-edged sword” for India. “Sectors that are dependent on international demand will benefit, but commodity prices will see a further upturn,” he says.

If inflation climbs, the Reserve Bank will have to hike interest rates. This could result in “some moderation” in the growth rates of investment and private consumption, according to Joshi. Bhansali also sees “a bit of a cyclical downturn in growth, but it may be only a few quarters or a few months.”

It’s on the reforms front — inextricably linked to politics — where there is the greatest amount of uncertainty. Much could happen. Joshi pins big hopes on the proposed new goods and services tax, which he describes as a “game changer.” A slow approach would be just right for new banking licenses, suggests Rajesh Chakrabarti, finance professor at the Indian School of Business. “The dominant view is that caution and safety are key, and no rush towards greater liberalization is warranted.” He also expects the recent corruption scandals to create a bigger role for the government, “as the false assurance of the cleanliness of the private sector is now gone.”

“There are far too many policy reforms that are pending, but unfortunately, the parliamentary system has been bogged down by controversies, scams and corruption. No substantive reforms could move forward during 2010,” says Bhandare. “Our political parties must realize the adverse consequences of their actions.”

 3.    The G-20 is 2011’s Biggest Political Risk (via Harvard Business Review)

Among the acute political risks facing the world this year, the nuclear threats from Iran and North Korea are serious, no doubt, but the behavior of the 20 major economic powers scare us more: these countries can no longer agree on how the global economy should function.

“Oh, come on,” you might say. “When did the world’s leaders ever agree on anything?”

But, there used to be a pretty good understanding among the dominant economies on matters such as currencies, capital flows, and economic globalization, and the major players were willing to put their heads together to solve crises.

No more. The major economic powers are pushing their own agendas and using the key institutions that should be providing global governance as arenas for confrontation instead of collaboration.

This enormous change ushers in an era of growing political risk. It doesn’t have an official name yet, but we propose calling it the “G-Zero,” as in zero collaboration. It is the first item on the Eurasia Group’s Top Risks for 2011.

Before the global downturn, the G-7, and then the G-8 (including Russia), coordinated governance on key economic issues. The G-8 was superseded by the G-20 during the financial crisis, and at first the members cooperated well to prevent a global economic collapse. But the initial collaboration was misleading — it turned out to be merely a reaction to panic.

The first serious cracks in the group started showing in Copenhagen a year ago, following a climate summit marked by such disunity that the outcome was worse than if no meeting had taken place. Then, last fall, both the International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington and the G-20 meeting in Seoul ended with warnings of looming conflict. “We’re in the midst of an international currency war,” Guido Mantega, Brazil’s Finance Minister, said last September.

Well, this information does not give much comfort. The message is that do not view the world through rose-tinted glasses in 2011. It is a rough ride ahead and we have to be prepared. So let us keep a realistic view and still hope for the best.