A fortnight back Aam Admi Party’s (AAP) magnificent political debut in Delhi pulled the rug under the feet of seasoned politicians. Old established politicians with dynastic lineage are scanning the environment to see which young inexperienced common person will oust them from their plush leather chairs. The AAP victory is a game changer, injecting fresh blood in Indian democracy. The citizens, sick and tired of corruption are demanding good governance. With national elections coming up in May 2014, the political risks of the country are changing.
A. AAP’s Applecart
Gen X arrived on the political arena and won the first battle. The victorious 28 AAP MLAs are 26-49 years old. They do not have a political background, family connections, or money. They are regular middle class people who took their first baby steps in activism in the Anna Hazare Anti-Corruption Movement.
AAPs symbol, the broom, stands for cleaning the corrupt system. In one stroke, it has swept the old political system and established rules. Within a week, anti-corruption Lok Pal Bill was passed with Congress spearheading the passage of the bill. The bill had been pending for over five decades. While Arvind Kejriwal and Prashant Bhushan were the brains behind the moment, Rahul Gandhi was quick to take the credit.
The AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal, by taking public referendum to form the government, out manoeuvred BJP and Congress. By announcing that AAP will participate in national elections, Kejriwal has become a national leader with mass appeal. With people demanding change and a corruption free government, AAPs is a significant threat to established parties.
From business perspective, in AAP governed states cronyism and corruption will decrease. However, the number of raids and investigations might increase. One is likely to see some high level prosecutions with the implementation of Lok Pal bill. Hence, it will pay to keep high business ethics, and reduce illicit money transactions and bribes.
B. BJP’s Bandwagon
BJP Prime Ministerial candidate, showed his leadership mettle in the state elections. BJP win in four of the five states clearly showed that the tide is in its favour. Modi is riding on the propagated success of Gujarat Model, Hindu middle class and business support.
However, though Modi is projecting himself as an agent of change, Kejriwal is outshining him in that sphere. In addition, AAP voters come from all income groups, religions, and regions. Hence, Modi presently has a smaller pie of the vote bank.
BJP is also showing that it is unable to walk the talk of change. It is entering into alliances with candidates and parties with a criminal track record. Secondly, to connect the youth across India, it has started the project to build Sardar Patel statue by organizing runs and collecting iron pieces across India. It is trying to attack Kejriwal’s youth following obtained through social activism reputation by this initiative. The Gen Y does not connect with freedom fighters; it wants the current issues addressed.
Hence, it will be an interesting battle to watch. Businesses in BJP ruled states could expect some speedy action on pending proposals, a superficial reduction in corruption, and a significant focus on business growth. BJP isn’t positively aligned towards US; hence, some tensions are envisaged. Moreover, if it comes to power at national level it is expected to gun for Congress leaders and the corruption cases.
C. Congress’s Circus
In the state elections, the Congress politicians came out looking like a pack of jokers. The Congress hubris, corruption cases, and Rahul Gandhi’s ill preparedness to don the leadership mantle resulted in its downfall.
Suddenly, the Gandhis’ are putting on the activist’s cloak. In the Supreme Court ruling of LGBT cases, they were on the forefront fighting for LGBT rights. After letting US walk all over for last ten years, in Khobragade case, it is drawing blood. At the last moment, support to pass the bill for allowing politicians with criminal records to contest was withdrawn. An attempt to change image and control reputation damage in the last six months isn’t going to work.
The Congress Prime Ministerial candidate is still unknown. A feeler was sent out about Nandan Nilekani being the Prime Ministerial candidate. He might sail through with business tycoons, but will appear as a US supported candidate. The US governments attempt to play big brother’s role in Indian democracy doesn’t go down well with Indian voters. Rahul Gandhi isn’t a people’s magnet. He has not proved his leadership capabilities. Hence, Congress might be facing some dilemmas in selecting a candidate with national appeal. Finally, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has called it a day and isn’t seeking a third term.
Congress most probably is going to take a beating. In the states it survives, corruption is going to continue and it is going to take a while for them to introduce good governance. Leaders are going to be scrambling for cover, as AAP and BJP are both interested in investigating them to get mileage. In the states it loses, a few projects permissions might be withdrawn or closed. These are the states where business sector will face maximum political risks.
The ABC of Indian politics is changing. It will be enthralling and heart-warming to watch the 2014 elections. Indian democracy is finally coming of age and voters have tasted their power to overthrow established models. With multi-party environment and many more parties in the ring, the competition is going to be keen.
However, a few messages are clearly coming out. Those aligning with corrupt leaders or leaders with criminal records are going to lose the public backing. Political battle plans and strategies need to be redrawn, as the old isn’t going to work. Fighting on religion and caste won’t ensure victory. The parties manifesto focus must be on good governance, economic and business growth, corruption free environment and empowerment of the masses. The economy is expected to pick up only after the elections near the last quarter of 2014. Hence, be prepared for a slow year in business.